{"id":13692,"date":"2020-11-08T11:14:53","date_gmt":"2020-11-08T01:14:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chillicomment.com\/?p=13692"},"modified":"2020-11-08T16:29:38","modified_gmt":"2020-11-08T06:29:38","slug":"%e9%82%ae%e6%8a%a5%e7%8b%ac%e5%ae%b6%ef%bc%9a%e7%9b%98%e7%82%b9%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e5%a4%a7%e6%88%98%ef%bc%8c%e8%b0%81%e5%87%86%e7%a1%ae%e9%a2%84%e6%b5%8b%e7%be%8e%e5%9b%bd%e5%a4%a7%e9%80%89-%e8%b0%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chillicomment.com\/?p=13692","title":{"rendered":"\u90ae\u62a5\u72ec\u5bb6\uff1a\u76d8\u70b9\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u6218\uff0c\u8c01\u51c6\u786e\u9884\u6d4b\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009 \u8c01\u7834\u4e0d\u8d25\u4e4b\u8eab\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u64b0\u5199\uff1a\u8001\u856d<\/p>\n

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2. \u5386\u53f2\u4e0a\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u62ff\u4e0b\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u7684\u603b\u7edf\u4e00\u822c\u90fd\u53ef\u83b7\u80dc\u3002\u8be5\u5dde\u300c\u6ca1\u843d\u94a2\u94c1\u5dde\u300d\u89d2\u8272\uff0c\u80fd\u5426\u518d\u8ba9\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5982\u56db\u5e74\u524d\u822c\u6a2a\u626b\u84dd\u9886\u767d\u4eba\u9009\u7968\uff1f\u7ed3\u679c\u662f\u7279\u6717\u666e\u786e\u5b9e\u8d62\u4e86\u8be5\u5dde\uff0c\u4f46\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\u7684\u98ce\u5411\u6807\u4e0d\u8d25\u4e4b\u8eab\u88ab\u7834\u3002<\/p>\n

3. \u7f8e\u56fd\u5a92\u4f53\u5927\u4ea8\u3001\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u798f\u97f3\u6d3e\u7535\u89c6\u5e03\u9053\u5bb6\u7f57\u4f2f\u68ee\uff08Pat Robertson\uff0911\u670820\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u60ca\u4e16\u9884\u8a00\uff0c\u58f0\u79f0\u4e0a\u5e1d\u544a\u8bc9\u4ed6\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5c06\u6210\u529f\u8fde\u4efb\uff0c\u6700\u5c115\u5e74\u5f8c\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u5c0f\u884c\u661f\u649e\u51fb\u5730\u7403\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u4f1a\u5e26\u6765\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u663e\u793a\u9884\u6d4b\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u4ed6\u7684\u9996\u6b21\u9884\u6d4b\u5931\u8d25\u3002\u4eca\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u62a5\u6307\u4ed6\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u66fe\u9884\u8a00\u4e16\u754c\u672b\u65e5\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u90fd\u6ca1\u6709\u6210\u771f\u3002<\/p>\n

4.\u4e2d\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6700\u6709\u540d\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u201c\u4e49\u4e4c\u6307\u6570\u201d\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e49\u4e4c\u5e02\u2014\u2014\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e00\u4e2a\u957f\u8fbe10\u4e2a\u8857\u533a\u7684\u5de5\u5382\u76f4\u9500\u8d2d\u7269\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6df1\u5904\uff0c\u4e3a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u63d0\u4f9b\u5851\u6599\u6050\u9f99\u548c\u201cKiss My Bass\u201d\u68d2\u7403\u5e3d\u7684\u5546\u8d29\u4eec\u5bf9\u5510\u7eb3\u5fb7?\u7279\u6717\u666e(Donald Trump)\u572811\u67083\u65e5\u7684\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u83b7\u80dc\u5145\u6ee1\u4fe1\u5fc3\u3002<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/p>\n

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2. \u7f8e\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u6559\u6388\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u57281984\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u9884\u6d4b\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u8fd1\u56db\u5341\u5e74\u6765\u4ece\u672a\u770b\u8d70\u773c\uff0c\u66fe\u6210\u529f\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u4e5d\u5c4a\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7ed3\u679c\u30022020\u5e749\u670817\u65e5\u4ed6\u63a5\u53d7BBC\u91c7\u8bbf\u65f6\u9884\u8a00\uff0c2020\u5e74\uff0c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u4eba\u62dc\u767b\u5c06\u80dc\u51fa\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u57282016\u5e74\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u843d\u5e55\u540e\u4e0d\u4e45\uff0c\u5386\u53f2\u6559\u6388\u827e\u4f26?\u674e\u5947\u66fc\uff08Allan Lichtman\uff09\u7a81\u7136\u6536\u5230\u4e00\u5c01\u4fe1\uff0c\u6765\u81ea\u521a\u521a\u5f53\u9009\u603b\u7edf\u7684\u7279\u6717\u666e\u3002\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u62a5\u9053\u4e0a\u7528\u5927\u53f7\u9a6c\u514b\u7b14\u505a\u4e86\u70b9\u8bc4\uff1a\u201c\u6559\u6388\uff0c\u606d\u559c\uff0c\u4f60\u8bf4\u5bf9\u4e86\uff01\u201d\u4ed6\u8fd8\u7b7e\u4e0a\u4e86\u50cf\u5fc3\u7535\u56fe\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u6807\u5fd7\u6027\u7b7e\u540d\u3002\u4eca\u5e7473\u5c81\u7684\u674e\u5947\u66fc\u5728\u7f8e\u5229\u575a\u5927\u5b66\u6559\u6388\u5386\u53f2\u5b66\u8fd1\u534a\u4e2a\u4e16\u7eaa\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u66f4\u4e3a\u4e16\u4eba\u5e7f\u77e5\u7684\u8eab\u4efd\u662f\uff1a\u51c6\u786e\u5ea6\u6781\u9ad8\u7684\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u9884\u6d4b\u8005\u3002<\/p>\n

3. \u7f8e\u56fd\u6c11\u8c03\u805a\u5408\u673a\u6784Five ThirtyEight\u572810\u670829\u65e5\u9009\u4e3e\u9884\u6d4b\u6a21\u578b\u4e2d\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5728\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u56e2\u9009\u7968\u4e2d\u83b7\u80dc\u7684\u6982\u7387\uff0c\u4ece10\u670828\u65e5\u768488.2%\u4e0a\u5347\u81f3\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u768489%\uff0c\u9884\u8ba1\u62dc\u767b\u80fd\u8d62\u5f97538\u5f20\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u4e2d\u7684356\u7968\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u57fa\u672c\u51c6\u786e\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u7968\u6570\u5916\u3002<\/p>\n

4. \u4e2d\u56fd\u65b9\u9762\uff0c11\u67081\u65e5\uff0c\u5510\u4e16\u5e73\u6559\u6388\u62c5\u4efb\u4e3b\u4efb\u7684\u590d\u65e6\u5927\u5b66\u201c\u590d\u6742\u51b3\u7b56\u5206\u6790\u4e2d\u5fc3\u201d\u7814\u7a76\u56e2\u961f\u6b63\u5f0f\u53d1\u5e03\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u57fa\u4e8e\u8ba1\u7b97\u673a\u6a21\u62df\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\uff0c\u8be5\u7ed3\u679c\u9884\u6d4b\u4e86\u5c06\u4e8e2020\u5e7411\u67083\u65e5\u4e3e\u884c\u7684\u7b2c59\u5c4a\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u5171\u548c\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u548c\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u5019\u9009\u4eba\u5728\u516d\u4e2a\u5dde\u7684\u201c\u76f8\u5bf9\u5f97\u7968\u7387\u201d\u3002\u9884\u6d4b\u7ed3\u679c\uff1a\u62dc\u767b-\u54c8\u91cc\u65af\u8d62\u5f97\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u572889.6%-92.4%\u4e4b\u95f4(\u5747\u503c\u4e3a91.1%)\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e-\u5f6d\u65af\u8d62\u5f97\u603b\u7edf\u9009\u4e3e\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u57287.1%-9.6%\u4e4b\u95f4(\u5747\u503c\u4e3a8.3%)\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u51c6\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n

5. \u7ebd\u7ea6\u57ce\u5e02\u5927\u5b66\u7684\u7edf\u8ba1\u7269\u7406\u5b66\u5bb6\u8d6b\u5c14\u5357?\u9a6c\u514b\u65af\uff08Hernan Makse\uff09\u535a\u58eb\u5229\u7528AI\u548c\u5927\u6570\u636e\u6280\u672f\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u793e\u4ea4\u5e73\u53f0\u4e0a\u7684\u6c11\u4f17\u89c2\u70b9\uff0c\u4ee5\u6b64\u6765\u521d\u6b65\u9884\u6d4b\u672c\u5c4a\u5927\u9009\u7684\u83b7\u80dc\u8005\u3002Makse\u7814\u53d1\u7684AI\u6a21\u578b\u5f97\u51fa\u7684\u7ed3\u8bba\u662f\u62dc\u767b\u95ee\u9f0e\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u51c6\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n

6. \u8ddd\u79bb\u5927\u9009\u65e5\u8fd8\u6709\u4e09\u5468\u65f6\uff0c\u8c03\u7814\u516c\u53f8Opinium Research\u548c\u300a\u536b\u62a5\u300b\u8054\u5408\u8fdb\u884c\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5bf9\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u9886\u5148\u4f18\u52bf\u98d9\u5347\u81f3\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u768417\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u51c6\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n

7. \u82f1\u56fd\u300a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u4eba\u300b\u6742\u5fd7\u672c\u6708\u9884\u6d4b\u62dc\u767b\u5c06\u8d62\u53d6334\u5f20\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\uff1b\u300a\u6cf0\u6664\u58eb\u62a5\u661f\u671f\u520a\u300b\u62a5\u9053\uff0c\u82f1\u56fd\u9996\u76f8\u5e9c\u5df2\u8ba4\u5b9a\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5927\u52bf\u5df2\u53bb\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u793a\u4f17\u5927\u81e3\u5f00\u59cb\u548c\u62dc\u767b\u5efa\u4ea4\u3002<\/p>\n

8.\u5fb7\u56fd\u67cf\u6797\u675c\u838e\u592b\u4eba\u8721\u50cf\u9986\uff08Madame Tussauds\uff0910\u670830\u65e5\u5c06\u7535\u89c6\u540d\u4eba\u51fa\u8eab\u7684\u5171\u548c\u515a\u7c4d\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u7279\u6717\u666e\uff08Donald Trump\uff09\u7684\u8721\u50cf\u653e\u8fdb\u5927\u578b\u5783\u573e\u7bb1\u3002\u8def\u900f\u793e\u540c\u65e5\u62a5\u9053\u6307\uff0c\u6b64\u4e3e\u663e\u7136\u610f\u5728\u53cd\u6620\u8721\u50cf\u9986\u5bf911\u67083\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u603b\u7edf\u5927\u9009\u7684\u9884\u671f\u3002\u4e5f\u5c5e\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n

9. \u6c11\u8c03\u6574\u5408\u7f51\u7ad9\u300cReal Clear Politics\u300d11\u670830\u65e5\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5728\u5168\u7f8e\u9886\u5148\u7279\u6717\u666e7.8\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002\u4e5f\u5c5e\u4e8e\u9884\u6d4b\u51c6\u786e\u3002<\/p>\n

10.\u80fd\u57282106\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u9884\u6d4b\u7279\u6717\u666e\u8d62\uff0c2020\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u9884\u6d4b\u62dc\u767b\u8d62\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u8fde\u80dc\u4e8c\u6b21\u9884\u6d4b\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u6fb3\u6d32\u300a\u6089\u5c3c\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\u4e3b\u7b14\u8427\u5341\u4e00\u72fc\u30022015\u5e745\u670814\u65e5\uff0c\u856d\u5341\u4e00\u72fc\u64b0\u6587\u9884\u6d4b\u7279\u6717\u666e\u57282016\u5e74\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u83b7\u80dc\u30022020\u5e746\u670814\u65e5\uff0c\u856d\u5341\u4e00\u72fc\u4ee5\u300a\u5927\u5c40\u5df2\u5b9a \u62dc\u767b\u5165\u4e3b\u767d\u5bab\u6ca1\u6709\u60ac\u5ff5\u300b\u4e3a\u9898\u9884\u6d4b\u62dc\u767b\u80dc\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u5ef6\u7eed\u4e86\u4e8c\u6b21\u9884\u6d4b\u7f8e\u56fd\u5927\u9009\u7684\u8bb0\u5f55\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8fd9\u6b21\u5927\u9009\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u4e00\u63d0\u8fd8\u6709\uff0c\u6fb3\u6d32\u300aThe Sydney Post\u6089\u5c3c\u90ae\u62a5\u300b\uff0c\u5f53\u7279\u6717\u666e\u5728\u6fb3\u6d32\u65f6\u95f44\u65e5\u5ba3\u5e03\u5f53\u9009\u540e\uff0c\u90ae\u62a5\u57285\u65e5\u9996\u5bb6\u5ba3\u5e03\u62dc\u767b\u80dc\u9009\uff0c\u6210\u4e3a\u5168\u7403\u7b2c\u4e00\u5bb6\u5ba3\u5e03\u6c11\u4e3b\u515a\u80dc\u9009\u7684\u5a92\u4f53\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u6700\u4e50\u8fd8\u6709\u535a\u5f69\u516c\u53f8\u3002\u636e\u6089\u53e6\u6709\u4e00\u540d\u8d4c\u5ba2\u4e0b1\u767e\u4e07\u82f1\u9551\u8d4c\u62dc\u767b\u80dc\u51fa\uff0c\u4f46\u535a\u5f69\u4e1a\u8005\u7acb\u535a\uff08ladbrokes\uff09\u96c6\u56e2\u4ecd\u6307\uff0c\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u5468\u8d76\u7740\u4e0b\u6ce8\u7684\u8d4c\u5ba2\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u56db\u5206\u4e4b\u4e09\u62bc\u7279\u6717\u666e\u80dc\u9009\uff0c\u300c\u6839\u636e\u535a\u5f69\u4e1a\u8005\u4e0e\u6c11\u8c03\u4e13\u5bb6\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u662f\u80dc\u5c40\u5df2\u5b9a\uff08home and hosed\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u6709\u8d4c\u5ba2\u770b\u5728\u8d54\u7387\u7684\u5206\u4e0a\uff0c\u9009\u5728\u6700\u5f8c\u4e00\u523b\u4e0b\u6ce8\u8d4c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u80dc\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4e0d\u5931\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\uff1a<\/strong><\/p>\n

1.\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u6c11\u8c03\u300211\u67083\u65e5\u9009\u4e3e\u5f53\u65e5\uff1a\u6700\u65b0\u7684\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\uff0c8\u4e2a\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u4e2d\u4ec5\u6709\u7231\u8377\u534e\u5dde\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u9886\u5148\uff0c\u5176\u4ed66\u4e2a\u5dde\u90fd\u503e\u5411\u652f\u6301\u62dc\u767b\uff0c\u800c\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5219\u4e92\u6709\u9886\u5148\uff0c\u96be\u4ee5\u9884\u6d4b\u3002\u7efc\u4e0a\u7edf\u8ba1\uff0c\u5ddd\u666e\u6709\u673a\u4f1a\u4ece\u6447\u6446\u5dde\u62ff\u4e0b6\u7968\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5219\u80fd\u62b1\u8d70101\u7968\uff0c\u4fc4\u4ea5\u4fc4\u5dde\u56e0\u672a\u6709\u660e\u663e\u504f\u597d\u7684\u5019\u9009\u4eba\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5e76\u672a\u5c06\u8be5\u5dde\u768418\u7968\u5217\u5165\u8ba1\u7b97\u3002\u603b\u8ba1538\u5f20\u7684\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u4e2d\uff0c\u9884\u4f30\u62dc\u767b\u80fd\u5728\u5927\u9009\u4e2d\u8d62\u5f97\u8d85\u8fc7333\u5f20\u9009\u4e3e\u4eba\u7968\u3001\u5ddd\u666e\u5219\u80fd\u593a\u53d6\u903e185\u5f20\u7968\uff0c\u53cc\u65b9\u5dee\u8ddd\u660e\u663e\uff0c\u4e14\u62dc\u767b\u7684\u9884\u4f30\u9009\u7968\u66f4\u76f4\u63a5\u8d85\u8fc7270\u7968\u7684\u5f53\u9009\u95e8\u69db<\/p>\n

2. \u9884\u6d4b\u94f6\u53d1\u65cf\u4e0d\u6ee1\u6297\u75ab\u8868\u73b0 \u5171\u548c\u515a\u300c\u7968\u4ed3\u300d\u751f\u53d8\u3002CNN\u672c\u67087\u65e5\u53d1\u5e03\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\uff0c65\u5c81\u6216\u4ee5\u4e0a\u9009\u6c11\u652f\u6301\u62dc\u767b\u548c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u6bd4\u4f8b\u5206\u522b\u4e3a60%\u53ca39%\uff1b\u5168\u56fd\u5e7f\u64ad\u516c\u53f8\/\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\u672c\u6708\u521d\u53d1\u5e03\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u7ed3\u679c\u76f8\u4f3c\uff0c\u957f\u8005\u9009\u6c11\u4e2d62%\u652f\u6301\u62dc\u767b\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4ec535%\u3002\u5728\u591a\u4e2a\u5173\u952e\u6e38\u79bb\u5dde\uff0c\u7279\u6717\u666e\u7684\u957f\u8005\u7968\u770b\u6765\u4e5f\u544a\u6025\uff0c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\/Siena\u57289\u6708\u5e95\u81f310\u6708\u521d\u5728\u5bbe\u5915\u6cd5\u5c3c\u4e9a\u5dde\u6240\u505a\u7684\u6c11\u8c03\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5728\u957f\u8005\u9009\u6c11\u4e2d\u7684\u652f\u6301\u5ea6\u9886\u514811\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff1bWDIV\/\u5e95\u7279\u5f8b\u65b0\u95fb\u672c\u6708\u521d\u6c11\u8c03\u66f4\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u62dc\u767b\u5728\u5bc6\u6b47\u6839\u5dde\u957f\u8005\u9009\u6c11\u4e2d\u652f\u6301\u5ea6\u9886\u5148\u8fd130\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7279\u6717\u666e\u4e0a\u5c4a\u8f7b\u6613\u8d62\u5f97\u4f5b\u5dde\u957f\u8005\u7684\u652f\u6301\uff0c\u5176\u957f\u8005\u5f97\u7968\u5927\u80dc\u5e0c\u62c9\u91cc17\u4e2a\u767e\u5206\u70b9\uff0c\u60df\u75ab\u60c5\u4ee4\u4eca\u5c4a\u60c5\u51b5\u6709\u53d8\u3002\u7ed3\u679c\u770b\uff0cCNN\u3001\u5168\u56fd\u5e7f\u64ad\u516c\u53f8\u3001\u300a\u534e\u5c14\u8857\u65e5\u62a5\u300b\uff0c\u300a\u7ebd\u7ea6\u65f6\u62a5\u300b\u3001Siena\u7b49\u673a\u6784\u6c11\u8c03\u9884\u6d4b\u8d34\u4e2d\u4e00\u534a\u3002\u51c6\u7684\u662f\u6447\u6446\u5dde\uff0c\u5931\u51c6\u7684\u662f\u4f5b\u5dde\u6c11\u8c03\uff0c\u4f5b\u5dde\u6700\u7ec8\u7531\u7279\u6717\u666e\u593a\u5f97\u3002<\/p>\n

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