{"id":15044,"date":"2021-01-21T06:38:59","date_gmt":"2021-01-20T20:38:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chillicomment.com\/?p=15044"},"modified":"2021-01-21T06:38:59","modified_gmt":"2021-01-20T20:38:59","slug":"%e5%9b%9e%e9%a1%be%ef%bc%9a%e3%80%8c%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%a4%96%e9%95%b7%e4%b8%8d%e6%87%82%e7%be%8e%e5%9c%8b%e5%a4%96%e4%ba%a4%e3%80%8d-%e5%85%a9%e6%99%ba%e5%ba%ab%e9%bd%8a%e6%89%b9%e8%93%ac%e4%bd%a9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chillicomment.com\/?p=15044","title":{"rendered":"\u56de\u987e\uff1a\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u9577\u4e0d\u61c2\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u300d \u5169\u667a\u5eab\u9f4a\u6279\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u4e2d\u7f8e\u6f14\u8b1b"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"body-wrapper\" class=\"body-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"main-wrapper\">\n<div class=\"content-wrapper\">\n<section class=\"section-widget\">\n<div class=\"section-widget_container\">\n<div class=\"section-widget_left\">\n<div class=\"main-component\">\n<div class=\"article-container\">\n<article id=\"article-2708264\" class=\"print\" data-id=\"2708264\" data-facebook-link=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sharer\/sharer.php?u=https%3A\/\/china.hket.com\/article\/2708264%3Fr%3Dcpsdfb\" data-fullcontent=\"true\" data-paid=\"false\">\n<div class=\"article-detail\">\n<div class=\"article-detail-body-container\">\n<div class=\"article-detail-content-container\">\n<p>\u3010\u7126\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u3011\u53bb\u5e747\u670820\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u52d9\u537f\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u300c\u65b0\u9435\u5e55\u6f14\u8b1b\u300d\uff0c\u5ba3\u7a31\u7f8e\u570b40\u591a\u5e74\u300c\u76f2\u76ee\u63a5\u89f8\u300d\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u7b56\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u7e7c\u7e8c\uff1b\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u66f4\u8981\u6c42\u4e2d\u570b\u4eba\u6c11\u300c\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u5408\u4f5c\u6539\u8b8a\u4e2d\u570b\u5171\u7522\u9ee8\u300d\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5169\u5bb6\u4e3b\u8981\u667a\u5eab\u4e0d\u7d04\u800c\u540c\u6279\u8a55\uff0c\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u4f5c\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u982d\u865f\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\uff08\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u52d9\u537f\u76f8\u7576\u5916\u9577\uff09\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u4e0d\u8a8d\u8b58\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u5169\u667a\u5eab\u7570\u53e3\u540c\u8072\u7a31\uff0c\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u6f14\u8b1b\u932f\u8aa4\u5f15\u7528\u548c\u66f2\u89e3\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u7e3d\u7d71\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\u6240\u8a00\u3002\u667a\u5eab\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u591a\u5e74\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u4ea4\u5f80\u7d55\u975e\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u53cd\u800c\u7372\u76ca\u826f\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u53bb\u5e747\u670823\u65e5\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u52a0\u5dde\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\u7e3d\u7d71\u5716\u66f8\u9928\uff08Nixon Presidential Library\uff09\u6f14\u8b1b\uff0c\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u5c3c\u514b\u905c1967\u5e74\u5617\u8a66\u63a8\u52d5\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u63a5\u89f8\uff08\u5c3c\u514b\u905c1972\u5e74\u8a2a\u83ef\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e1979\u5e74\u5efa\u4ea4\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u6bb5\u8a71\u3002\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u65e8\u5728\u4ee5\u6b64\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u6f14\u8b1b\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u8a8d\u70ba\u7f8e\u570b\u672a\u80fd\u4ee5\u63a5\u89f8\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u6210\u70ba\u897f\u65b9\u822c\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\uff0c\u7a31\u300c\u7f8e\u570b\u76f2\u76ee\u63a5\u89f8\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u8001\u6a21\u5f0f\u5df2\u7d93\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u7f8e\u65b9\u4e00\u5b9a\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u9019\u6a23\u7e7c\u7e8c\u4e0b\u53bb\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u6240\u5f15\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\u7684\u8a71\u662f\u9019\u6a23\u7684\uff1a<\/p>\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/183518426\/hket2_WebRP_ChinaDetail_MobileInArticle_0__container__\"><\/div>\n<blockquote><p>\u300c\u4e16\u754c\u5728\u4e2d\u570b\u6539\u8b8a\u4e4b\u524d\u4e0d\u6703\u5b89\u5168\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u7684\u76ee\u6a19\u61c9\u7576\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u6211\u5011\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u6240\u53ca\u7bc4\u570d\u4e4b\u5167\u4fc3\u6210\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\u505a\u5230\u9019\u9ede\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u8aaa\u670d\u4e2d\u570b\u4e2d\u570b\u5fc5\u9808\u6539\u8b8a\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4e0d\u80fd\u6eff\u8db3\u5176\u5e1d\u570b\u91ce\u5fc3\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\u9700\u8981\u505c\u6b62\u5916\u90e8\u5192\u96aa\uff0c\u8f49\u800c\u5c0d\u5167\u89e3\u6c7a\u672c\u570b\u554f\u984c\u3002\u300d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>\uff08The world cannot be safe until China changes. Thus our aim, to the extent that we can influence events, should be to induce change. The way to do this is to persuade China that it must change; that it cannot satisfy its imperial ambitions, and that its own national interest requires a turning away from foreign adventuring and a turning inward toward the solution of its own domestic problems.\uff09<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5c08\u5bb6\u537b\u8cea\u7591\uff0c\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u6839\u672c\u662f\u65b7\u7ae0\u53d6\u7fa9\uff0c\u932f\u8aa4\u89e3\u8b80\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\u9019\u756a\u8a71\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u667a\u5eab<strong>\u300c\u570b\u5bb6\u5229\u76ca\u4e2d\u5fc3\u300d<\/strong>\uff08Center for the National Interest\uff09\u9ad8\u7d1a\u6210\u54e1\u3001\u767d\u5bae\u570b\u5bb6\u60c5\u5831\u59d4\u54e1\u6703\u524d\u5c08\u8cac\u6771\u4e9e\u570b\u5bb6\u60c5\u5831\u5b98\u5e0c\u723e\uff08Paul Heer\uff09\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\u7576\u5e74\u7684\u4e0b\u4e00\u6bb5\u8a71\uff0c\u662f\u5c07\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u5c0d\u5916\u884c\u70ba\u8207\u8607\u806f\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u7a31\u300c\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u7d42\u65bc\u5728\u767c\u73fe\u6539\u8b8a\u540c\u6a23\u6709\u5fc5\u8981\u6642\uff0c\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e86\u6539\u8b8a\u300d\uff08Moscow finally changed when it, too, found that change was necessary\uff09\uff0c\u300c\u897f\u65b9\u5275\u9020\u4e86\u689d\u4ef6\uff0c\u8feb\u4f7f\u83ab\u65af\u79d1\u660e\u667a\u5730\u8207\u897f\u65b9\u9054\u6210\u67d0\u7a2e\u548c\u89e3\u300d\uff08the West was able to create conditions&#8230;that forced Moscow to look to the wisdom of reaching some accommodation with the West\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5e0c\u723e\u8868\u660e\uff0c\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\u4e4b\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u6b63\u6b63\u662f\u8981\u8b93\u4e2d\u570b\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u9054\u6210\u4e00\u5b9a\u59a5\u5354\uff0c\u800c\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\u96d6\u7136\u671f\u671b\u63a5\u89f8\u6703\u4ee4\u4e2d\u570b\u8b8a\u5f97\u6108\u767c\u958b\u653e\uff0c\u4f46\u6539\u8b8a\u4e2d\u570b\u9ad4\u5236\u4e26\u975e\u7f8e\u570b\u63a5\u89f8\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u539f\u610f\uff0c\u4ea6\u975e\u7f8e\u570b\u63a5\u89f8\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u76ee\u6a19\u3002<\/p>\n<p><em>\uff08\u7de8\u6309\uff1a\u8607\u806f1950\u5e74\u4ee3\u65bc\u8d6b\u9b6f\u66c9\u592b\u9818\u5c0e\u4e0b\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u62cb\u68c4\u4e86\u65af\u5927\u6797\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6b64\u8209\u5f15\u8d77\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u4e0d\u6eff\uff0c\u7d42\u81f4\u4e2d\u8607\u6c7a\u88c2\u3002\u5c3c\u514b\u905c1967\u5e74\u6f14\u8b1b\u6642\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u6b63\u7d93\u6b77\u6587\u5316\u5927\u9769\u547d\uff0c\u4e26\u540c\u6642\u8207\u7f8e\u8607\u4ea4\u60e1\uff0c\u53cd\u5c0d\u7f8e\u570b\u300c\u5e1d\u570b\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\u548c\u8607\u806f\u300c\u4fee\u6b63\u4e3b\u7fa9\u300d\uff0c\u662f\u570b\u5167\u5916\u5f62\u52e2\u90fd\u6700\u70ba\u60e1\u52a3\u7684\u5e74\u4ee3\u3002\uff09<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u5e0c\u723e\u53c8\u53cd\u99c1\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u7f8e\u63a5\u89f8\u5931\u6557\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u8868\u793a\u63a5\u89f8\u4e2d\u570b\u6210\u6548\u986f\u8457\u3002\u5e0c\u723e\u7a31\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u5728\u6bdb\u6fa4\u6771\u8207\u9127\u5c0f\u5e73\u7684\u5354\u52a9\u4e0b\uff0c\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u65bc1970\u30011980\u5e74\u4ee3\u5f62\u6210\u6230\u7565\u5354\u4f5c\uff0c\u6210\u529f\u5728\u51b7\u6230\u4e2d\u9b25\u57ae\u5171\u540c\u6575\u4eba\u8607\u806f\uff1b\u9127\u5c0f\u5e73\u6539\u9769\u958b\u653e\u5927\u529b\u63a8\u9032\u4e2d\u7f8e\u7d93\u8cbf\u8207\u6587\u5316\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u4fbf\u5b9c\u8ca8\u7269\u6578\u5341\u5e74\u4f86\u6e90\u6e90\u4e0d\u65b7\u4f9b\u61c9\u7f8e\u570b\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8fb2\u6c11\u8207\u88fd\u9020\u5546\u5247\u6253\u5165\u4e86\u4e2d\u570b\u9f90\u5927\u5e02\u5834\uff1b\u4e2d\u570b\u76f8\u6bd4\u904e\u53bb\u4ea6\u9010\u6b65\u64c1\u62b1\u591a\u908a\u4e3b\u7fa9\uff0c\u884c\u70ba\u8b8a\u5f97\u8f03\u70ba\u8ca0\u8cac\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u8f03\u70ba\u958b\u653e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7f8e\u570b\u53e6\u4e00\u667a\u5eab<strong>\u300c\u5916\u4ea4\u95dc\u4fc2\u5354\u6703\u300d<\/strong>\uff08Council on Foreign Relations\uff09\u4e3b\u5e2d\u3001\u7f8e\u570b\u524d\u8cc7\u6df1\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u54c8\u65af\uff08Richard Haass\uff09\u540c\u6a23\u6279\u8a55\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u6f14\u8b1b\u3002\u54c8\u65af\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\u8207\u7576\u5e74\u570b\u52d9\u537f\u57fa\u8f9b\u683c\u653f\u7b56\u76ee\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4ee5\u4e2d\u570b\u5236\u8861\u8607\u806f\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u5f71\u97ff\u4e2d\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u6539\u8b8a\u4e2d\u570b\u5167\u90e8\u5236\u5ea6\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u54c8\u65af\u4e5f\u5f37\u8abf\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u8207\u4e2d\u570b\u63a5\u89f8\u53d6\u5f97\u5927\u81f4\u6210\u529f\u3002\u4ed6\u7a31\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u4ecb\u5165\u978f\u56fa\u4e86\u4e2d\u8607\u5206\u9053\u63da\u9463\uff0c\u4e26\u7372\u53d6\u4e86\u6253\u8d0f\u51b7\u6230\u7684\u7c4c\u78bc\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u570b\u81ea1979\u5e74\u8ddf\u8d8a\u5357\u908a\u5883\u6230\u722d\u4ee5\u4f86\uff0c\u518d\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u53c3\u8207\u6230\u722d\uff1b\u5317\u4eac\u81f3\u4eca\u4e5f\u6c92\u6709\u5c0d\u53f0\u7063\u52d5\u6b66\uff0c\u5bb9\u8a31\u53f0\u7063\u6c11\u4e3b\u84ec\u52c3\u767c\u5c55\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u54c8\u65af\u4e0d\u8af1\u8a00\uff0c\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u4e26\u4e0d\u4e86\u89e3\u4e2d\u570b\u3001\u5c3c\u514b\u905c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f8e\u570b\u5916\u4ea4\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u4ed6\u66f4\u5f62\u5bb9\uff0c\u554f\u984c\u4e0d\u6b62\u7f8e\u570b\u9996\u5e2d\u5916\u4ea4\u5b98\u8868\u73fe\u6beb\u7121\u5916\u4ea4\u98a8\u7bc4\u822c\u7c21\u55ae\uff0c\u66f4\u5728\u65bc\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u8aa4\u8b80\u6b77\u53f2\uff0c\u4e26\u672a\u80fd\u70ba\u4e2d\u7f8e\u95dc\u4fc2\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u689d\u6e05\u6670\u3001\u53ef\u884c\u7684\u9053\u8def\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u95dc\u4fc2\u5c0d\u9019\u6642\u4ee3\u8981\u6bd4\u4efb\u4f55\u5176\u4ed6\u95dc\u4fc2\u90fd\u91cd\u8981\u3002\uff08\u7ecf\u6d4e\u65e5\u62a5\uff09<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3010\u7126\u70b9\u5206\u6790\u3011\u53bb\u5e747\u670820\u65e5\uff0c\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u52d9\u537f\u84ec\u4f69\u5967\u300c\u65b0\u9435\u5e55\u6f14\u8b1b\u300d\uff0c\u5ba3\u7a31\u7f8e\u570b40\u591a\u5e74\u300c\u76f2\u76ee\u63a5\u89f8\u300d\u4e2d\u570b\u653f\u7b56\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u518d\u7e7c 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