{"id":32454,"date":"2026-05-03T09:19:15","date_gmt":"2026-05-02T23:19:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.chillicomment.com\/?p=32454"},"modified":"2026-05-03T09:19:15","modified_gmt":"2026-05-02T23:19:15","slug":"%e5%b7%a7%e5%90%88%e8%88%87%e8%aa%a4%e8%ae%80%ef%bc%9a%e4%b8%ad%e6%97%a5%e9%97%9c%e4%bf%82%e7%9a%84%e8%aa%8d%e7%9f%a5%e9%99%b7%e9%98%b1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.chillicomment.com\/?p=32454","title":{"rendered":"\u5de7\u5408\u8207\u8aa4\u8b80\uff1a\u4e2d\u65e5\u95dc\u4fc2\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u9677\u9631"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"upper\">\n<p>\u4e00\u6ce2\u672a\u5e73\uff0c\u4e00\u6ce2\u53c8\u8d77\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"lower\">\n<div class=\"articlelogin\">\n<p>4\u670817\u65e5\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u6d77\u4e0a\u81ea\u885b\u968a\u6751\u96e8\u7d1a\u8b77\u885b\u8266\u300c\u96f7\u300d\u865f\u901a\u904e\u53f0\u7063\u6d77\u5cfd\u3002\u5728\u7576\u524d\u4e2d\u65e5\u95dc\u4fc2\u7dca\u5f35\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u65e5\u65b9\u7684\u9019\u4e00\u7f3a\u4e4f\u514b\u5236\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u906d\u5230\u5317\u4eac\u7684\u5f37\u70c8\u6279\u8a55\uff0c\u88ab\u4e2d\u570b\u8f3f\u8ad6\u89e3\u8b80\u70ba\u523b\u610f\u9078\u5728\u300a\u99ac\u95dc\u689d\u7d04\u300b\u7c3d\u8a02\u7d00\u5ff5\u65e5\u7684\u6311\u91c1\u3002\u5f9e\u65e5\u672c\u5167\u90e8\u89d2\u5ea6\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u6771\u4eac\u662f\u5426\u6709\u610f\u9078\u5b9a\u9019\u4e00\u6b77\u53f2\u654f\u611f\u65e5\u671f\u523a\u6fc0\u4e2d\u570b\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>2021\u5e74\u53bb\u4e16\u7684\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u969b\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\u8005Robert Jervis\u5728\u5176\u95dc\u65bc\u570b\u969b\u95dc\u4fc2\u4e2d\u932f\u8aa4\u8a8d\u77e5\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u7814\u7a76\u300aPerception and Misperception in International Politics\u300b\u4e2d\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u570b\u5bb6\u5728\u89e3\u8b80\u4ed6\u570b\u884c\u70ba\u6642\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u7a2e\u300c\u904e\u5ea6\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u5047\u8a2d\u300d\uff08overestimation of consistency\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u50be\u5411\u65bc\u9ad8\u4f30\u5c0d\u624b\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u96c6\u4e2d\u6027\u8207\u5354\u8abf\u6027\uff0c\u5c07\u5176\u8996\u70ba\u4e00\u500b\u5177\u6709\u9023\u8cab\u6230\u7565\u610f\u5716\u7684\u55ae\u4e00\u884c\u52d5\u8005\uff08centralized actor\uff09\u3002\u9019\u4e00\u50be\u5411\u8207\u66f4\u4e00\u822c\u6027\u7684\u300c\u4e00\u81f4\u6027\u504f\u8aa4\u300d\uff08consistency 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